Five schools, five region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 5-3A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
Both region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union | 1–0 | 3–4 | +10 |
| Quitman | 1–1 | 2–5 | +2 |
 Pisgah | 1–1 | 3–4 | −5 |
 Southeast Lauderdale | 1–1 | 5–2 | +5 |
 St. Andrew’s | 0–1 | 3–4 | −12 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 2.0 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Union is 1–0 in Region 5-3A and 3–4 overall. The ratings project 3.3 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Southeast Lauderdale in Week 8, where the model has Union by 2, with a 55% chance to win. Then at St. Andrew’s in Week 9.
Southeast Lauderdale is 1–1 in Region 5-3A and 5–2 overall. The ratings project 2.0 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Union at home in Week 8, where the model has Union by 2, with a 55% chance to win. Then against Quitman at home in Week 9.
Quitman is 1–1 in Region 5-3A and 2–5 overall. The ratings project 2.4 region wins and give it a 98% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Southeast Lauderdale in Week 9, where the model has Southeast Lauderdale by 2, with a 56% chance to win. Then against St. Andrew’s at home in Week 10.
Pisgah is 1–1 in Region 5-3A and 3–4 overall. The ratings project 2.1 region wins and give it a 93% chance at the playoffs. Next is against St. Andrew’s at home in Week 8, where the model has Pisgah by 17, with an 89% chance to win. Then at Union in Week 10.
St. Andrew’s is 0–1 in Region 5-3A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 0.2 region wins, 1.8 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it a 10% chance at the playoffs. The path starts at Pisgah in Week 8, where the model has Pisgah by 17, with an 89% chance to win. Then against Union at home in Week 9.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
