The title race
After Week 6 · projectionsThe three teams in each half most likely to reach the 3A final, from 10,000 simulated seasons on today's ratings. A projection, not a prediction.
- Noxubee CountyRegion 4 65%to win its half · title 37%
WinonaRegion 4
27%to win its half · title 11%- Thomas E. EdwardsRegion 3 4%to win its half · title 1%
RaleighRegion 6
52%to win its half · title 30%- SeminaryRegion 6 35%to win its half · title 18%
Presbyterian ChristianRegion 8
9%to win its half · title 2%
Round 1, if it started today
From each region's projected seedsEach region's top four, seeded by projected region wins, placed in MHSAA's 2026 bracket. The higher seed hosts in Round 1.
North
South
Then Round 2, Round 3 and North/South and the final, Sat., Dec. 5, 3:30 p.m., Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville.
Every team's road
Chance to reach each roundHow often each team got that far in the simulated seasons. Title is the chance to win it all.
| Team | PlayoffsIn | Round 2R2 | Round 3R3 | North/SouthN/S | FinalFinal | TitleTitle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North | ||||||
| Noxubee CountyRegion 4 | >99% | >99% | 94% | 87% | 65% | 37% |
| WinonaRegion 4 | >99% | 99% | 82% | 67% | 27% | 11% |
| Thomas E. EdwardsRegion 3 | >99% | 98% | 55% | 19% | 4% | 1% |
| Choctaw CountyRegion 4 | >99% | 94% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 1% |
| BoonevilleRegion 1 | >99% | 97% | 25% | 7% | 1% | <1% |
| O’BannonRegion 3 | 99% | 74% | 34% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| AberdeenRegion 4 | 95% | 49% | 23% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| IndependenceRegion 2 | >99% | 39% | 21% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Coahoma CountyRegion 2 | >99% | 7% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Holly SpringsRegion 2 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| North PanolaRegion 2 | >99% | 11% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Amanda ElzyRegion 3 | 99% | 16% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| KossuthRegion 1 | 96% | 53% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Alcorn CentralRegion 1 | 94% | 28% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Yazoo CountyRegion 3 | 87% | 22% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BelmontRegion 1 | 74% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| MantachieRegion 1 | 35% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Humphreys CountyRegion 3 | 14% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| NettletonRegion 4 | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South | ||||||
| RaleighRegion 6 | >99% | >99% | 93% | 78% | 52% | 30% |
| SeminaryRegion 6 | >99% | 99% | 88% | 72% | 35% | 18% |
| Presbyterian ChristianRegion 8 | >99% | 87% | 82% | 24% | 9% | 2% |
| HazlehurstRegion 7 | >99% | 96% | 25% | 11% | 3% | 1% |
| MageeRegion 6 | >99% | 86% | 66% | 12% | 2% | <1% |
| FranklinRegion 7 | >99% | 74% | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| UnionRegion 5 | >99% | 66% | 15% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| St. StanislausRegion 8 | 96% | 9% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Port GibsonRegion 7 | 98% | 44% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Jefferson CountyRegion 7 | 99% | 44% | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Jefferson Davis CountyRegion 6 | 97% | 15% | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| TylertownRegion 8 | 96% | 3% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| QuitmanRegion 5 | 94% | 32% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| PisgahRegion 5 | 94% | 23% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Southeast LauderdaleRegion 5 | 86% | 21% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| St. PatrickRegion 8 | 73% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| West MarionRegion 8 | 34% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| St. Andrew’sRegion 5 | 27% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Crystal SpringsRegion 7 | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| McLaurinRegion 6 | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
The regions
Top 4 in each make the playoffsEach region ordered by projected region wins, the same order as its region page.
North is Regions 1–4 and South is Regions 5–8, the two halves of MHSAA's bracket.
Bracket: MHSAA's 2026 Class 5A-7A and 1A-4A bracket templates. Hosts: MHSAA's 2026-27 football playoff home team instructions; the final is at a neutral site. North and South champions: Rule 7.21.5.
Ratings after Week 6. They're rebuilt after each week's games and set Monday night; the projections move with them.