Five schools, five region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 4-3A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
Both region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
14 Winona | 2–0 | 7–0 | +24 |
 Choctaw County | 2–0 | 3–4 | +24 |
| 13Noxubee County | 0–1 | 5–2 | −12 |
 Nettleton | 0–1 | 0–6 | −12 |
 Aberdeen | 0–2 | 3–4 | −24 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 1.0 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Winona is 2–0 in Region 4-3A and 7–0 overall. The ratings project 3.8 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Choctaw County in Week 9, where the model has Winona by 10, with a 77% chance to win. Then against Nettleton at home in Week 10.
Noxubee County is 0–1 in Region 4-3A and 5–2 overall. The ratings project 2.8 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Choctaw County at home in Week 8, where the model has Noxubee County by 11, with a 79% chance to win. Then at Nettleton in Week 9.
Choctaw County is 2–0 in Region 4-3A and 3–4 overall. The ratings project 2.4 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Noxubee County in Week 8, where the model has Noxubee County by 11, with a 79% chance to win. Then against Winona at home in Week 9.
Aberdeen is 0–2 in Region 4-3A and 3–4 overall. The ratings project 1.0 region wins and give it a 95% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Nettleton at home in Week 8, where the model has Aberdeen by 22, with a 94% chance to win. Then at Noxubee County in Week 10.
Nettleton is 0–1 in Region 4-3A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 0.1 region wins, 0.9 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it a 5% chance at the playoffs. The path starts at Aberdeen in Week 8, where the model has Aberdeen by 22, with a 94% chance to win. Then against Noxubee County at home in Week 9.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
