Five schools, five region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 7-4A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
Both region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
 South Pike | 1–0 | 3–2 | +12 |
7 Poplarville | 1–0 | 6–0 | +1 |
 McComb | 1–1 | 5–2 | +11 |
 Columbia | 1–1 | 4–3 | 0 |
 Lawrence County | 0–2 | 0–7 | −24 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 1.4 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Poplarville is 1–0 in Region 7-4A and 6–0 overall. The ratings project 3.8 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at South Pike in Week 8, where the model has Poplarville by 23, with a 95% chance to win. Then at Lawrence County in Week 9.
McComb is 1–1 in Region 7-4A and 5–2 overall. The ratings project 2.8 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Lawrence County at home in Week 8, where the model has McComb by 37, with a 99% chance to win. Then at South Pike in Week 10.
Columbia is 1–1 in Region 7-4A and 4–3 overall. The ratings project 1.9 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against South Pike at home in Week 9, where the model has Columbia by 12, with an 80% chance to win. Then at Poplarville in Week 10.
South Pike is 1–0 in Region 7-4A and 3–2 overall. The ratings project 1.4 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Poplarville at home in Week 8, where the model has Poplarville by 23, with a 95% chance to win. Then at Columbia in Week 9.
Lawrence County is 0–2 in Region 7-4A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 0.0 region wins, 1.4 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it less than a 1% chance at the playoffs. The path starts at McComb in Week 8, where the model has McComb by 37, with a 99% chance to win. Then against Poplarville at home in Week 9.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
