Five schools, five region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 2-4A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
Both region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
20 Itawamba AHS | 1–0 | 5–0 | +12 |
 Shannon | 1–0 | 5–2 | +5 |
 Houston | 1–1 | 2–5 | −4 |
 Amory | 1–1 | 4–3 | +11 |
 Mooreville | 0–2 | 3–4 | −24 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 1.3 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Itawamba AHS is 1–0 in Region 2-4A and 5–0 overall. The ratings project 3.5 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Houston in Week 8, where the model has Itawamba AHS by 15, with an 86% chance to win. Then at Shannon in Week 9.
Shannon is 1–0 in Region 2-4A and 5–2 overall. The ratings project 3.1 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Amory in Week 8, where the model has Shannon by 12, with an 81% chance to win. Then against Itawamba AHS at home in Week 9.
Houston is 1–1 in Region 2-4A and 2–5 overall. The ratings project 2.1 region wins and give it a 98% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Itawamba AHS at home in Week 8, where the model has Itawamba AHS by 15, with an 86% chance to win. Then against Mooreville at home in Week 9.
Amory is 1–1 in Region 2-4A and 4–3 overall. The ratings project 1.3 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Shannon at home in Week 8, where the model has Shannon by 12, with an 81% chance to win. Then at Itawamba AHS in Week 10.
Mooreville is 0–2 in Region 2-4A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 0.1 region wins, 1.2 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it a 3% chance at the playoffs. The path starts at Houston in Week 9, where the model has Houston by 21, with a 94% chance to win. Then against Shannon at home in Week 10.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
