The title race
After Week 6 · projectionsThe three teams in each half most likely to reach the 4A final, from 10,000 simulated seasons on today's ratings. A projection, not a prediction.
KosciuskoRegion 4
51%to win its half · title 32%
LouisvilleRegion 4
29%to win its half · title 16%
Itawamba AHSRegion 2
11%to win its half · title 5%
PoplarvilleRegion 7
60%to win its half · title 33%
Pass ChristianRegion 8
15%to win its half · title 5%
McCombRegion 7
9%to win its half · title 2%
Round 1, if it started today
From each region's projected seedsEach region's top four, seeded by projected region wins, placed in MHSAA's 2026 bracket. The higher seed hosts in Round 1.
North
South
Then Round 2, Round 3 and North/South and the final, Thu., Dec. 3, 4 p.m., Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville.
Every team's road
Chance to reach each roundHow often each team got that far in the simulated seasons. Title is the chance to win it all.
| Team | PlayoffsIn | Round 2R2 | Round 3R3 | North/SouthN/S | FinalFinal | TitleTitle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North | ||||||
| KosciuskoRegion 4 | >99% | 97% | 88% | 73% | 51% | 32% |
| LouisvilleRegion 4 | >99% | 92% | 77% | 60% | 29% | 16% |
| Itawamba AHSRegion 2 | >99% | 88% | 72% | 25% | 11% | 5% |
| SenatobiaRegion 3 | >99% | 98% | 52% | 17% | 5% | 2% |
| ShannonRegion 2 | >99% | 70% | 45% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
| CorinthRegion 1 | >99% | 91% | 21% | 7% | 1% | <1% |
| New AlbanyRegion 1 | >99% | 83% | 12% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| GreenwoodRegion 4 | >99% | 36% | 13% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| HoustonRegion 2 | 96% | 14% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ClarksdaleRegion 3 | >99% | 71% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| Rosa FortRegion 3 | >99% | 45% | 4% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| RipleyRegion 3 | 94% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Tishomingo CountyRegion 1 | 94% | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| North PontotocRegion 1 | 90% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| AmoryRegion 2 | 69% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Yazoo CityRegion 4 | 56% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| GentryRegion 4 | 44% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| MoorevilleRegion 2 | 35% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South PontotocRegion 1 | 16% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ByhaliaRegion 3 | 6% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South | ||||||
| PoplarvilleRegion 7 | >99% | >99% | 84% | 77% | 60% | 33% |
| Pass ChristianRegion 8 | >99% | 93% | 67% | 38% | 15% | 5% |
| McCombRegion 7 | >99% | 93% | 49% | 27% | 9% | 2% |
| MendenhallRegion 6 | >99% | 97% | 42% | 21% | 7% | 2% |
| MortonRegion 6 | >99% | 95% | 36% | 16% | 5% | 1% |
| ColumbiaRegion 7 | >99% | 86% | 37% | 14% | 3% | 1% |
| ForestRegion 6 | >99% | 45% | 18% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Greene CountyRegion 8 | >99% | 44% | 19% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| South PikeRegion 7 | 91% | 51% | 17% | 2% | <1% | <1% |
| Newton CountyRegion 5 | >99% | 36% | 14% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| West LauderdaleRegion 5 | >99% | 28% | 9% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| RichlandRegion 6 | 97% | 17% | 5% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Choctaw CentralRegion 5 | >99% | 5% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Northeast LauderdaleRegion 5 | >99% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Forrest County AHSRegion 8 | >99% | 8% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Moss PointRegion 8 | 78% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| BayRegion 8 | 23% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Lawrence CountyRegion 7 | 9% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| RaymondRegion 6 | 3% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
The regions
Top 4 in each make the playoffsEach region ordered by projected region wins, the same order as its region page.
North is Regions 1–4 and South is Regions 5–8, the two halves of MHSAA's bracket.
Bracket: MHSAA's 2026 Class 5A-7A and 1A-4A bracket templates. Hosts: MHSAA's 2026-27 football playoff home team instructions; the final is at a neutral site. North and South champions: Rule 7.21.5.
Ratings after Week 6. They're rebuilt after each week's games and set Monday night; the projections move with them.