Five schools, five region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 4-4A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
Both region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
17 Louisville | 2–0 | 5–2 | +24 |
 Greenwood | 1–0 | 3–3 | +12 |
12 Kosciusko | 1–1 | 6–1 | 0 |
 Gentry | 0–1 | 1–6 | −12 |
 Yazoo City | 0–2 | 0–6 | −24 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 0.6 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Louisville is 2–0 in Region 4-4A and 5–2 overall. The ratings project 3.9 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Gentry at home in Week 8, where the model has Louisville by 50, with a 99% chance to win. Then at Greenwood in Week 10.
Kosciusko is 1–1 in Region 4-4A and 6–1 overall. The ratings project 2.8 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Greenwood in Week 8, where the model has Kosciusko by 13, with an 83% chance to win. Then against Yazoo City at home in Week 9.
Greenwood is 1–0 in Region 4-4A and 3–3 overall. The ratings project 2.3 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Kosciusko at home in Week 8, where the model has Kosciusko by 13, with an 83% chance to win. Then at Gentry in Week 9.
Yazoo City is 0–2 in Region 4-4A, near the playoff cut. The ratings project 0.6 region wins; the 4th projected seed sits at 0.6. They give Yazoo City a 59% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Kosciusko in Week 9, where the model has Kosciusko by 46, with a 99% chance to win. Then against Gentry at home in Week 10.
Gentry is 0–1 in Region 4-4A, near the playoff cut. The ratings project 0.4 region wins; the 4th projected seed sits at 0.6. They give Gentry a 41% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Louisville in Week 8, where the model has Louisville by 50, with a 99% chance to win. Then against Greenwood at home in Week 9.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
