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Region overview · MHSAA Class 4A

Region 5-4A

Four schools, five region weeks, and all four make the playoffs.

This Friday, Oct. 92 region games this week.

Every team in Region 5-4A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).

This week · Week 8

Week 8

The one region game this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.

Newton CountyatChoctaw Central
Newton County by563%win chance
63%37%

Standings

Region games only

Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.

TeamRegionOverallPts ± (capped)
West Lauderdale1–03–3+4
Choctaw Central1–04–2+12
Newton County1–12–5+8
Northeast Lauderdale0–21–6−24

If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1

  1. Head-to-head among the tied teams (their combined records if three or more are tied).
  2. How the tied teams did against the highest-seeded teams.
  3. Point differential in the region games among the tied teams, capped at 12 a game. A forfeit counts the full 12.
  4. Point differential in region games against the highest-seeded teams.
  5. Fewest points allowed in all region games (no cap).
  6. A coin flip.

Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.

Projected seeds

All four qualify

Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.

1West Lauderdale2.6proj. wins
2Choctaw Central1.7proj. wins
3Newton County1.6proj. wins
4Northeast Lauderdale0.1proj. wins
The playoff cut

Every team in Region 5-4A makes the playoffs. The projected seeds above show where each one lands.

Team by team

Record3–31–0 in region
PCPI+721st of 39 in 4A
Proj. region wins2.6of 2
Nextat Northeast Lauderdale · Week 9West Lauderdale by 20 · 93% win chance

West Lauderdale is 1–0 in Region 5-4A. Every team in the region makes the playoffs, so the region games decide the seeding, and the ratings project West Lauderdale for 2.6 region wins. Next is at Northeast Lauderdale in Week 9, where the model has West Lauderdale by 20, with a 93% chance to win. Then against Choctaw Central at home in Week 10.

Record2–51–1 in region
PCPI+623rd of 39 in 4A
Proj. region wins1.6of 1
Nextat Choctaw Central · Week 8Newton County by 5 · 63% win chance

Newton County is 1–1 in Region 5-4A. Every team in the region makes the playoffs, so the region games decide the seeding, and the ratings project Newton County for 1.6 region wins. Next is at Choctaw Central in Week 8, where the model has Newton County by 5, with a 63% chance to win. That's its last region game.

Record4–21–0 in region
PCPI025th of 39 in 4A
Proj. region wins1.7of 2
Nextvs Newton County · Week 8Newton County by 5 · 37% win chance

Choctaw Central is 1–0 in Region 5-4A. Every team in the region makes the playoffs, so the region games decide the seeding, and the ratings project Choctaw Central for 1.7 region wins. Next is against Newton County at home in Week 8, where the model has Newton County by 5, with a 63% chance to win. Then at West Lauderdale in Week 10.

Record1–60–2 in region
PCPI−1534th of 39 in 4A
Proj. region wins0.1of 1
Nextvs West Lauderdale · Week 9West Lauderdale by 20 · 7% win chance

Northeast Lauderdale is 0–2 in Region 5-4A. Every team in the region makes the playoffs, so the region games decide the seeding, and the ratings project Northeast Lauderdale for 0.1 region wins. Next is against West Lauderdale at home in Week 9, where the model has West Lauderdale by 20, with a 93% chance to win. That's its last region game.

Region play, week by week

Projected on today's ratings, which move weekly
Week 8
Newton County at Choctaw CentralNewton County by 5 · 63%
Week 9
West Lauderdale at Northeast LauderdaleWest Lauderdale by 20 · 93%
Week 10
Choctaw Central at West LauderdaleWest Lauderdale by 8 · 72%

Last Friday against the number

Week 7 · Thursday, Oct. 8

Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.

Newton County 17, West Lauderdale 21Upset Newton County by 4−8
Northeast Lauderdale 10, Choctaw Central 34 Choctaw Central by 9−15
Ratings after Week 7 (games through Oct. 9). They move every Saturday. Ratings are fitted on every scored Mississippi game at once. Projection = home rating − away rating + a 2-point home edge; win chance = how often a margin like it holds up.