Five schools, five region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 6-4A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
Both region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
16 Mendenhall | 2–0 | 6–0 | +24 |
| Morton | 1–1 | 5–2 | 0 |
 Richland | 1–1 | 5–2 | 0 |
 Raymond | 0–1 | 1–6 | −12 |
 Forest | 0–1 | 4–2 | −12 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 1.4 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Mendenhall is 2–0 in Region 6-4A and 6–0 overall. The ratings project 3.9 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Richland in Week 8, where the model has Mendenhall by 20, with a 93% chance to win. Then against Raymond at home in Week 10.
Morton is 1–1 in Region 6-4A and 5–2 overall. The ratings project 2.7 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Raymond in Week 9, where the model has Morton by 37, with a 99% chance to win. Then against Forest at home in Week 10.
Forest is 0–1 in Region 6-4A and 4–2 overall. The ratings project 2.0 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Raymond at home in Week 8, where the model has Forest by 35, with a 99% chance to win. Then against Richland at home in Week 9.
Richland is 1–1 in Region 6-4A and 5–2 overall. The ratings project 1.4 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Mendenhall at home in Week 8, where the model has Mendenhall by 20, with a 93% chance to win. Then at Forest in Week 9.
Raymond is 0–1 in Region 6-4A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 0.0 region wins, 1.4 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it less than a 1% chance at the playoffs. The path starts at Forest in Week 8, where the model has Forest by 35, with a 99% chance to win. Then against Morton at home in Week 9.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
