Five schools, five region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 5-2A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
Both region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
 Scott Central | 1–0 | 4–2 | +12 |
 Puckett | 1–1 | 5–2 | −10 |
 Lake | 1–1 | 3–3 | +10 |
| Newton | 1–1 | 2–5 | −10 |
 Pelahatchie | 0–1 | 3–4 | −2 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 1.3 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Scott Central is 1–0 in Region 5-2A and 4–2 overall. The ratings project 3.9 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Newton in Week 8, where the model has Scott Central by 31, with a 99% chance to win. Then at Pelahatchie in Week 9.
Lake is 1–1 in Region 5-2A and 3–3 overall. The ratings project 1.9 region wins and give it a 94% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Pelahatchie at home in Week 8, where the model has Lake by 12, with an 81% chance to win. Then at Scott Central in Week 10.
Puckett is 1–1 in Region 5-2A and 5–2 overall. The ratings project 2.3 region wins and give it a 92% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Newton in Week 9, where the model has Puckett by 7, with a 71% chance to win. Then against Pelahatchie at home in Week 10.
Pelahatchie is 0–1 in Region 5-2A, near the playoff cut. The ratings project 0.6 region wins; the 4th projected seed sits at 1.3. They give Pelahatchie a 27% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Lake in Week 8, where the model has Lake by 12, with an 81% chance to win. Then against Scott Central at home in Week 9.
Newton is 1–1 in Region 5-2A and 2–5 overall. The ratings project 1.3 region wins and give it an 87% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Scott Central at home in Week 8, where the model has Scott Central by 31, with a 99% chance to win. Then against Puckett at home in Week 9.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
