Six schools, five region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 4-5A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
All three region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
 Northeast Jones | 1–0 | 3–3 | +10 |
| Wayne County | 1–0 | 2–4 | +12 |
 East Central | 1–0 | 2–4 | +12 |
 Vancleave | 0–1 | 2–4 | −10 |
 Stone | 0–1 | 3–3 | −12 |
 Purvis | 0–1 | 1–4 | −12 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 2.3 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Wayne County is 1–0 in Region 4-5A and 2–4 overall. The ratings project 4.1 region wins and give it a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Vancleave in Week 8, where the model has Wayne County by 14, with an 84% chance to win. Then against East Central at home in Week 9.
East Central is 1–0 in Region 4-5A and 2–4 overall. The ratings project 3.4 region wins and give it a 95% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Northeast Jones at home in Week 8, where the model has East Central by 3, with a 59% chance to win. Then at Wayne County in Week 9.
Northeast Jones is 1–0 in Region 4-5A and 3–3 overall. The ratings project 3.0 region wins and give it a 92% chance at the playoffs. Next is at East Central in Week 8, where the model has East Central by 3, with a 59% chance to win. Then against Purvis at home in Week 9.
Stone is 0–1 in Region 4-5A, near the playoff cut. The ratings project 2.3 region wins; the 4th projected seed sits at 2.3. They give Stone a 74% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Purvis in Week 8, where the model has Stone by 8, with a 71% chance to win. Then against Vancleave at home in Week 9.
Vancleave is 0–1 in Region 4-5A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 1.2 region wins, 1.1 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it a 22% chance at the playoffs. The path starts against Wayne County at home in Week 8, where the model has Wayne County by 14, with an 84% chance to win. Then at Stone in Week 9.
Purvis is 0–1 in Region 4-5A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 1.0 region wins, 1.3 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it an 18% chance at the playoffs. The path starts against Stone at home in Week 8, where the model has Stone by 8, with a 71% chance to win. Then at Northeast Jones in Week 9.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
