Six schools, six region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 2-5A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
All three region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
 Florence | 1–0 | 2–5 | +3 |
 Cleveland Central | 1–0 | 5–1 | +12 |
 Lanier | 1–0 | 6–1 | +12 |
 Vicksburg | 0–1 | 1–5 | −3 |
 Provine | 0–1 | 3–4 | −12 |
| Holmes County Central | 0–1 | 2–5 | −12 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 2.5 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Cleveland Central is 1–0 in Region 2-5A and 5–1 overall. The ratings project 4.3 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Florence at home in Week 8, where the model has Cleveland Central by 13, with an 84% chance to win. Then at Vicksburg in Week 9.
Vicksburg is 0–1 in Region 2-5A and 1–5 overall. The ratings project 2.5 region wins and give it an 85% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Provine in Week 8, where the model has Vicksburg by 15, with an 86% chance to win. Then against Cleveland Central at home in Week 9.
Lanier is 1–0 in Region 2-5A and 6–1 overall. The ratings project 3.1 region wins and give it a 92% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Holmes County Central in Week 8, where the model has Lanier by 11, with a 78% chance to win. Then against Florence at home in Week 9.
Florence is 1–0 in Region 2-5A and 2–5 overall. The ratings project 3.2 region wins and give it a 91% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Cleveland Central in Week 8, where the model has Cleveland Central by 13, with an 84% chance to win. Then at Lanier in Week 9.
Holmes County Central is 0–1 in Region 2-5A, near the playoff cut. The ratings project 1.3 region wins; the 4th projected seed sits at 2.5. They give Holmes County Central a 26% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Lanier at home in Week 8, where the model has Lanier by 11, with a 78% chance to win. Then against Provine at home in Week 9.
Provine is 0–1 in Region 2-5A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 0.6 region wins, 1.9 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it a 7% chance at the playoffs. The path starts against Vicksburg at home in Week 8, where the model has Vicksburg by 15, with an 86% chance to win. Then at Holmes County Central in Week 9.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
