Six schools, five region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 3-5A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
All three region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
5 Brookhaven | 1–0 | 6–0 | +12 |
 South Jones | 1–0 | 5–2 | +1 |
| 18Natchez | 1–0 | 6–0 | +12 |
 Sumrall | 0–1 | 4–3 | −1 |
 North Pike | 0–1 | 1–5 | −12 |
 Laurel | 0–1 | 1–5 | −12 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 2.4 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Brookhaven is 1–0 in Region 3-5A and 6–0 overall. The ratings project 4.7 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Sumrall at home in Week 8, where the model has Brookhaven by 32, with a 99% chance to win. Then at South Jones in Week 9.
Natchez is 1–0 in Region 3-5A and 6–0 overall. The ratings project 3.8 region wins and give it a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Laurel at home in Week 8, where the model has Natchez by 12, with an 80% chance to win. Then at Sumrall in Week 9.
Laurel is 0–1 in Region 3-5A and 1–5 overall. The ratings project 2.4 region wins and give it an 86% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Natchez in Week 8, where the model has Natchez by 12, with an 80% chance to win. Then against North Pike at home in Week 9.
South Jones is 1–0 in Region 3-5A and 5–2 overall. The ratings project 2.6 region wins and give it a 90% chance at the playoffs. Next is against North Pike at home in Week 8, where the model has South Jones by 17, with an 89% chance to win. Then against Brookhaven at home in Week 9.
Sumrall is 0–1 in Region 3-5A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 1.0 region wins, 1.4 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it a 20% chance at the playoffs. The path starts at Brookhaven in Week 8, where the model has Brookhaven by 32, with a 99% chance to win. Then against Natchez at home in Week 9.
North Pike is 0–1 in Region 3-5A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 0.5 region wins, 1.9 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it a 5% chance at the playoffs. The path starts at South Jones in Week 8, where the model has South Jones by 17, with an 89% chance to win. Then at Laurel in Week 9.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
