The title race
After Week 6 · projectionsThe three teams in each half most likely to reach the 5A final, from 10,000 simulated seasons on today's ratings. A projection, not a prediction.
PontotocRegion 1
44%to win its half · title 19%
Cleveland CentralRegion 2
21%to win its half · title 6%
New HopeRegion 1
21%to win its half · title 7%
BrookhavenRegion 3
75%to win its half · title 55%- NatchezRegion 3 20%to win its half · title 10%
LaurelRegion 3
2%to win its half · title 1%
Round 1, if it started today
From each region's projected seedsEach region's top four, seeded by projected region wins, placed in MHSAA's 2026 bracket. The higher seed hosts in Round 1.
North
South
Then Round 2 and North/South and the final, Sat., Dec. 5, 7 p.m., Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville.
Every team's road
Chance to reach each roundHow often each team got that far in the simulated seasons. Title is the chance to win it all.
| Team | PlayoffsIn | Round 2R2 | North/SouthN/S | FinalFinal | TitleTitle |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North | |||||
| PontotocRegion 1 | 99% | 86% | 65% | 44% | 19% |
| New HopeRegion 1 | 94% | 73% | 42% | 21% | 7% |
| Cleveland CentralRegion 2 | 99% | 67% | 39% | 21% | 6% |
| LafayetteRegion 1 | 83% | 49% | 19% | 6% | 1% |
| West PointRegion 1 | 77% | 39% | 13% | 4% | <1% |
| VicksburgRegion 2 | 85% | 24% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| LanierRegion 2 | 87% | 26% | 7% | 2% | <1% |
| CaledoniaRegion 1 | 46% | 15% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| FlorenceRegion 2 | 88% | 20% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
| Holmes County CentralRegion 2 | 30% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ProvineRegion 2 | 11% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| ColumbusRegion 1 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| South | |||||
| BrookhavenRegion 3 | >99% | 98% | 90% | 75% | 55% |
| NatchezRegion 3 | 99% | 90% | 65% | 20% | 10% |
| LaurelRegion 3 | 90% | 60% | 17% | 2% | 1% |
| Wayne CountyRegion 4 | 93% | 42% | 10% | 2% | <1% |
| South JonesRegion 3 | 73% | 37% | 6% | <1% | <1% |
| StoneRegion 4 | 79% | 19% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| East CentralRegion 4 | 82% | 21% | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| Northeast JonesRegion 4 | 80% | 18% | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| SumrallRegion 3 | 33% | 10% | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| PurvisRegion 4 | 34% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| VancleaveRegion 4 | 33% | 2% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| North PikeRegion 3 | 6% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
The regions
Top 4 in each make the playoffsEach region ordered by projected region wins, the same order as its region page.
North is Regions 1–2 and South is Regions 3–4, the two halves of MHSAA's bracket.
Bracket: MHSAA's 2026 Class 5A-7A and 1A-4A bracket templates. Hosts: MHSAA's 2026-27 football playoff home team instructions; the final is at a neutral site. North and South champions: Rule 7.21.5.
Ratings after Week 6. They're rebuilt after each week's games and set Monday night; the projections move with them.