Five schools, five region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 5-1A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
Both region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nanih Waiya | 1–0 | 5–1 | +12 |
 Ethel | 1–0 | 4–2 | +3 |
 Noxapater | 1–1 | 2–5 | 0 |
| Sebastopol | 1–1 | 2–5 | 0 |
 McAdams | 0–2 | 3–4 | −15 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 1.7 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Nanih Waiya is 1–0 in Region 5-1A and 5–1 overall. The ratings project 3.5 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Sebastopol at home in Week 8, where the model has Nanih Waiya by 13, with an 82% chance to win. Then at Ethel in Week 9.
Ethel is 1–0 in Region 5-1A and 4–2 overall. The ratings project 2.3 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Noxapater in Week 8, where the model calls it a toss-up. Then against Nanih Waiya at home in Week 9.
Noxapater is 1–1 in Region 5-1A and 2–5 overall. The ratings project 2.2 region wins and give it a 91% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Ethel at home in Week 8, where the model calls it a toss-up. Then at McAdams in Week 9.
Sebastopol is 1–1 in Region 5-1A and 2–5 overall. The ratings project 1.7 region wins and give it a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Nanih Waiya in Week 8, where the model has Nanih Waiya by 13, with an 82% chance to win. Then against Ethel at home in Week 10.
McAdams is 0–2 in Region 5-1A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 0.4 region wins, 1.3 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it an 11% chance at the playoffs. The path starts against Noxapater at home in Week 9, where the model has Noxapater by 7, with a 71% chance to win. Then at Nanih Waiya in Week 10.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
