Six schools, six region weeks, four playoff spots.
Every team in Region 1-7A side by side: the standings, the projected seeds, each team's outlook and every region game, with ratings from the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI).
All three region games this week, with the model's projection and how often a margin like that goes the favorite's way.
Region games only, in the MHSAA order: region record, then the tiebreak steps below.
| Team | Region | Overall | Pts ± (capped) |
|---|---|---|---|
1 Tupelo | 1–0 | 7–0 | +12 |
22 DeSoto Central | 1–0 | 5–1 | +12 |
| Hernando | 1–0 | 5–1 | +12 |
 Horn Lake | 0–1 | 0–6 | −12 |
 Southaven | 0–1 | 1–4 | −12 |
 Lewisburg | 0–1 | 2–4 | −12 |
If teams finish tied · MHSAA Handbook 2026-27, Rule 7.20.1
Because of the 12-point cap, a 56–0 win counts the same as 12–0. When a tie turns on margin, this page says "depends on the margin" rather than guess.
Projected region wins, ratings after Week 7. A projection, not a prediction of the standings.
The 4th projected seed sits at 1.7 region wins. Each team's outlook below shows where it stands against that cut and what comes next.
Tupelo is 1–0 in Region 1-7A and 7–0 overall. The ratings project 4.9 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Hernando at home in Week 8, where the model has Tupelo by 29, with a 98% chance to win. Then at Horn Lake in Week 9.
DeSoto Central is 1–0 in Region 1-7A and 5–1 overall. The ratings project 3.6 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is against Horn Lake at home in Week 8, where the model has DeSoto Central by 24, with a 96% chance to win. Then against Southaven at home in Week 9.
Hernando is 1–0 in Region 1-7A and 5–1 overall. The ratings project 3.2 region wins and give it better than a 99% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Tupelo in Week 8, where the model has Tupelo by 29, with a 98% chance to win. Then against Lewisburg at home in Week 9.
Southaven is 0–1 in Region 1-7A, near the playoff cut. The ratings project 1.7 region wins; the 4th projected seed sits at 1.7. They give Southaven a 62% chance at the playoffs. Next is at Lewisburg in Week 8, where the model has Southaven by 11, with a 79% chance to win. Then at DeSoto Central in Week 9.
Horn Lake is 0–1 in Region 1-7A, near the playoff cut. The ratings project 1.2 region wins; the 4th projected seed sits at 1.7. They give Horn Lake a 32% chance at the playoffs. Next is at DeSoto Central in Week 8, where the model has DeSoto Central by 24, with a 96% chance to win. Then against Tupelo at home in Week 9.
Lewisburg is 0–1 in Region 1-7A, with ground to make up. The ratings project 0.4 region wins, 1.3 short of the 4th projected seed, and give it a 7% chance at the playoffs. The path starts against Southaven at home in Week 8, where the model has Southaven by 11, with a 79% chance to win. Then at Hernando in Week 9.
Each result next to what the model expected. Green beat the number, red fell short of it.
