Starkville is in the playoffs if it beats Oxford on Thursday, and after Week 10 the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI) calls that game a toss-up.
It's far from the only game this week that can settle a playoff spot or a top seed in Classes 5A through 7A. In Classes 1A through 4A, and in the MAIS, the brackets are already set, and the next round is Friday.
MHSAA 5A through 7A: the last regular-season week
Classes 5A, 6A and 7A play one more regular-season week. Their playoffs start Friday, Nov. 13. The top four in each region get in.
Win and in
- Region 1-7A: Southaven is in with a win over Hernando on Thursday. If Hernando wins, the winner of Lewisburg at Horn Lake is in.
- Region 2-7A: Starkville is in with a win over Oxford. Germantown is in with a win at Murrah.
- Region 3-7A: the winner of Petal at Northwest Rankin is in.
- Region 4-7A: Ocean Springs is in with a win over St. Martin. If St. Martin wins, Biloxi is in.
- Region 1-6A: the winner of Saltillo at Grenada is in.
- Region 2-6A: Ridgeland is in with a win over Greenville.
- Region 3-6A: Forest Hill is in with a win at George County.
- Region 4-6A: Pascagoula is in with a win at Gautier. Pearl River Central is in with a win over Picayune.
- Region 2-5A: Florence is in with a win at Holmes County Central on Thursday. Cleveland Central is in with a win over Provine. Holmes County Central is in if Lanier wins at Vicksburg. A Vicksburg win over Lanier puts Vicksburg in if Florence also wins. It also puts Vicksburg in if Provine beats Cleveland Central.
- Region 3-5A: Natchez is in with a win over Brookhaven. South Jones is in with a win over Laurel. The rest of the region is undecided until Thursday's games are played.
Top seeds at stake
- Region 3-7A: Brandon takes the top seed with a win at Meridian.
- Region 3-6A: Hattiesburg takes the top seed with a win over Terry.
- Region 1-5A: New Hope takes the top seed with a win over Caledonia.
Already in
In Class 7A, Tupelo, DeSoto Central and Hernando are in from Region 1-7A. Oxford and Madison Central are in from Region 2-7A. Brandon and Meridian are in from Region 3-7A. Gulfport, D'Iberville and St. Martin are in from Region 4-7A, and Gulfport has clinched the region title.
In Class 6A, Lake Cormorant, Center Hill and South Panola are in from Region 1-6A. Warren Central and Neshoba Central are in from Region 2-6A. Hattiesburg, West Jones and Terry are in from Region 3-6A. Picayune and Hancock are in from Region 4-6A, and Picayune has clinched the region title.
In Class 5A, Lanier is in from Region 2-5A, and Brookhaven has clinched the Region 3-5A title. In Region 4-5A, all four spots are taken: Wayne County, the region champion, East Central, Purvis and Stone.
Region 1-5A: New Hope and Caledonia
Lafayette, Pontotoc, New Hope and West Point are all in. New Hope, Pontotoc and Lafayette are each 3–1 in region games, and Pontotoc plays at Lafayette on Thursday. New Hope takes the top seed with a win over Caledonia the same night. If Caledonia wins, the top seed goes to the winner in Lafayette.
Caledonia closes its season Thursday at New Hope, and that game decides whether New Hope takes the top seed. Under MHSAA's tiebreak math, no result this week can lift Caledonia into the top four.
The closest calls of the week
Oxford won last year's meeting 27–21 at Oxford. This year's game at Starkville is the toss-up from the top of this piece.
Picayune plays at Pearl River Central, and the model has Picayune by 2.
Stone plays at East Central, and the model has East Central by 3.
Brandon plays at Meridian, and the model has Brandon by 3.
Lanier plays at Vicksburg, and the model has Lanier by 4.
A run at stake in Meridian
Brandon has won every meeting with Meridian since 2016. On Thursday the model has Brandon by only 3. Meridian won 52–33 at Petal last week, as the underdog after Week 9.
Unbeatens play on
Tupelo is 10–0 and hosts DeSoto Central. The model has Tupelo by 24. Tupelo has beaten DeSoto Central in all eight meetings since 2015. Tupelo lost last season's Class 7A final to Gulfport by a point.
Warren Central is 9–0 and plays at Canton. The model has Warren Central by 21. Warren Central is the defending Class 6A champion.
Brookhaven is 9–0 and plays at Natchez. The model has Brookhaven by 18. Brookhaven is the defending Class 5A champion.
The upsets of Week 10 come home
Holmes County Central won at Vicksburg last week with an 11% chance after Week 9. On Thursday it hosts Florence, and the model has Florence by 6.
Horn Lake won 26–0 at Southaven for its first win of the season. On Thursday it hosts Lewisburg, and the model has Horn Lake by 10.
Unbeaten in the MAIS
Tunica Academy is 10–0 and the top seed in Class 1A Division II. Columbia Academy is 10–0 and plays at Leake Academy on Friday in the Class 3A Division I quarterfinals. After Week 10, the model has Leake Academy by 8, so the unbeaten team is the underdog.
Already in the bracket: the MAIS
The MAIS playoffs are already underway in three brackets: Class 1A Division I, Class 1A Division II and Class 2A. The top four seeds in each had a first-round bye. The quarterfinals are Friday, Nov. 6.
The first-round results:
- Class 2A: Regents beat Indianola Academy 21–14. After Week 9, the PCPI had Indianola Academy by 5.
- Class 2A: Winston Academy beat Centreville Academy 44–0.
- Class 1A Division I: Delta Academy beat Delta Streets Academy 82–46.
- Class 1A Division I: Humphreys Academy beat Porters Chapel Academy 76–32.
- Class 1A Division I: Newton County Academy beat Deer Creek 20–0.
- Class 1A Division I: Claiborne Academy (LA) beat Prentiss Christian 64–36.
- Class 1A Division II: Kemper Academy beat Tensas Academy (LA) 36–28.
- Class 1A Division II: DeSoto School (AR) beat Franklin Academy (LA) 42–14.
The Winston Academy game matched last season's two MAIS Class 2A champions. Centreville Academy won Division I, and Winston Academy won Division II.
Starting Friday: the MAIS
Several of Friday's games are rematches.
In Class 1A Division I, River Oaks (LA) meets Claiborne Academy (LA). River Oaks (LA) beat Claiborne Academy (LA) 46–16 on Oct. 23.
Humphreys Academy meets Benton Academy. Humphreys Academy beat Benton Academy 56–28 on Sept. 25.
Prairie View (LA) meets Newton County Academy. Prairie View (LA) beat Newton County Academy 42–30 on Sept. 4.
In Class 1A Division II, Calhoun Academy meets DeSoto School (AR), last season's Division II champion. Calhoun Academy beat DeSoto School (AR) 40–14 on Aug. 21.
In two other quarterfinals, Tunica Academy, the Division II top seed, meets Kemper Academy, and Class 2A top seed North Delta meets Winston Academy.
MAIS Class 3A and Class 4A open Friday too. In Class 3A Division II, Riverfield (LA) meets Saint Aloysius. Riverfield (LA) won 24–22 at Saint Aloysius on Sept. 11.
In the Class 4A Division I semifinals, Jackson Academy, the defending champion, meets Jackson Prep. Jackson Prep beat Jackson Academy 35–24 on Oct. 2.
In the other semifinal, Madison-Ridgeland Academy meets Hartfield Academy. Madison-Ridgeland Academy beat Hartfield Academy 42–21 on Sept. 4.
In Class 4A Division II, Pillow Academy meets Bayou Academy. Pillow Academy beat Bayou Academy 11–0 on Aug. 28.
Starting Friday: MHSAA 1A through 4A
The MHSAA regular season is over in Classes 1A through 4A. The top four teams in each region made the playoffs, and the first round is Friday, Nov. 6. Sixty-three first-round games are set, and the higher seed hosts.
Every unbeaten team opens at home. In Class 4A, Pass Christian is 10–0 and hosts Forest. Senatobia is 10–0 and hosts North Pontotoc. Poplarville is 9–0 and hosts Northeast Lauderdale.
In Class 3A, Winona is 10–0 and hosts Holly Springs. Thomas E. Edwards is 9–0 and hosts Belmont.
In Class 2A, Wesson is 9–0 and hosts Newton. In Class 1A, Leflore County is 9–0 and hosts H. W. Byers.
The closest first-round games, after Week 10:
- Class 2A: Loyd Star plays at Puckett, and the model calls it a toss-up.
- Class 4A: Richland plays at Greene County, and the model has Greene County by 1.
- Class 3A: Aberdeen plays at North Panola, and the model has North Panola by 1.
- Class 4A: Greenwood plays at Houston, and the model has Houston by 1.
Tylertown beat Presbyterian Christian 30–22 in Week 10 with an 8% chance after Week 9. On Friday it hosts Jefferson Davis County in Class 3A, and the model has Jefferson Davis County by 2.
Last season's Class 1A and Class 2A champions are both in the field. Calhoun City, the Class 1A champion, has a first-round bye. East Webster, the Class 2A champion, hosts Water Valley.
Notes
- How the numbers work: we studied the rating methods used for NFL, college and high school football, tested them on ten seasons of Mississippi games, and built one for Mississippi from what worked. Projections for this week's games are the PCPI numbers after Week 10, set before kickoff. Playoff spots and seeds are the MHSAA's and MAIS's own. Where a spot comes down to MHSAA's tiebreaker, we call it undecided until the games are played.