Holmes County Central had an 11% chance at Vicksburg. The Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI) had Vicksburg by 16. Holmes County Central won 26–14. That's 28 points better than the number, and it's the upset of the week. It's also our miss of the week.
Week 10 at a glance
An upset is a win by the team the projection did not favor. Pending games show no score until we can confirm them.
It wasn't a first, either. Holmes County Central has beaten Vicksburg four straight times.
It also moved Region 2-5A. Before Friday, Holmes County Central had an 8% chance at the playoffs. Now it has 59%. Vicksburg went from 95% to 51%.
This week's longest shot won on Thursday. Tylertown had an 8% chance against Presbyterian Christian, and the PCPI had Presbyterian Christian by 19. Tylertown won 30–22.
In Region 1-5A, West Point beat New Hope 50–48. The PCPI had New Hope by 7. West Point has beaten New Hope 10 straight times since 2015.
Horn Lake won 26–0 at Southaven for its first win of the season, after eight losses. The PCPI had Southaven by 2. A week ago, Southaven was our upset of the week. Horn Lake has now beaten Southaven three straight times.
Horn Lake's playoff chance in Region 1-7A went from 25% to 59%. Southaven went from 53% to 18%.
Upsets
Twelve underdogs won this week. Here are the other eight.
Hancock won 23–16 at Pascagoula with a 27% chance. The model had Pascagoula by 8. Pascagoula had won five straight in the series.
Meridian won 52–33 at Petal, 22 points better than the number. The model had Petal by 3.
Lanier beat Cleveland Central 26–18. The model had Cleveland Central by 6.
The rest of the upsets:
Regents won 21–14 at Indianola Academy (Indianola Academy by 5).
Madison Central beat Starkville 21–17 (Starkville by 4).
Central Hinds Academy beat Brookhaven Academy 44–41 (Brookhaven Academy by 3).
Tishomingo County won 43–42 at North Pontotoc on Thursday (North Pontotoc by 3).
Hattiesburg won 20–15 at West Jones (West Jones by 1).
One more game had no favorite at all. Mize won 9–0 at Enterprise (Clarke Co.).
Beat the number
Sixteen favorites beat the number by two scores or more. Six of them:
Potts Camp won 35–0 at Falkner, where the model had Potts Camp by 4. That's 31 points better than the number.
St. Stanislaus shut out West Marion 42–0, 27 points better than the number.
Forest Hill shut out Jim Hill 35–0 for its first win of the season. The model had Forest Hill by 9.
Corinth won 23–0 at New Albany. The model had Corinth by 2.
Neshoba Central won 38–17 at Ridgeland. The model had Neshoba Central by 1.
Wilkinson County won 28–6 at Enterprise (Lincoln Co.), 19 points better than the number.
Short of the number
Winona beat Nettleton 50–22 and is still unbeaten. The model had Winona by 54, so Nettleton kept it 26 points closer than the number.
Streaks
Tupelo, Senatobia, Pass Christian, Winona and Tunica Academy are 10–0 this season. Warren Central, Thomas E. Edwards, Wesson and Leflore County are 9–0.
Heidelberg has won eight straight. Seminary, East Marion and Tri-County Academy have each won seven straight.
Ashland also won for the first time this season.
Some long runs in a series got longer. Kossuth has beaten Alcorn Central 12 straight times since 2015. North Panola has beaten Holly Springs 12 straight times since 2015. Picayune has beaten Gautier 11 straight times since 2015.
Four runs of three or more ended. Hancock ended Pascagoula's five straight. Lumberton ended Taylorsville's six straight. Tishomingo County ended North Pontotoc's three straight, and Potts Camp ended Falkner's.
The playoff picture
In MHSAA, the top four of each region reach the playoffs. A few results this week moved those chances a long way.
Wilkinson County had a 58% chance in Region 7-2A. After its win at Enterprise (Lincoln Co.), it is over 99% to make the playoffs.
Yazoo City went from 59% to over 99% in Region 4-4A after beating Gentry.
Stone went from 69% to over 99% in Region 4-5A after beating Northeast Jones.
Belmont went from 73% to over 99% in Region 1-3A after beating Mantachie.
On the other side, Enterprise (Lincoln Co.), Gentry, Northeast Jones and Mantachie are each now under 1%. Clinton went from 32% to under 1% in Region 2-7A after its loss to Germantown.
These are simulated chances from the numbers set before the week. A chance near 100 is not a clinch, and a low one is not an elimination.
Still pending
These Week 10 finals aren't confirmed yet, so they aren't in this column: Louisville at Greenwood, Raymond at Mendenhall, Forest at Morton, Lake at Scott Central, Resurrection at Stringer, Jefferson County at Franklin, Newton at Richton, South Pontotoc at Booneville, Canton at Greenville, D'Iberville at Gulfport, Grenada at Lake Cormorant, Sumrall at Laurel, Northwest Rankin at Oak Grove, Columbia at Poplarville, Simmons at West Bolivar, Biloxi at West Harrison, Murrah at Oxford, Shaw at Riverside, North Pike at Brookhaven, Hartfield Academy at Starkville Academy, Russell Christian at Jacksonville Christian (AL), Manchester Academy at Winona Christian, Columbia Academy at Bowling Green (LA), Riverfield (LA) at Pillow Academy, Columbus Christian at Wilkinson Christian, Delta Streets Academy at Delta Academy, Lausanne Collegiate (TN) at Northpoint Christian, Bayou Academy at Washington School, Christian Collegiate Academy at Silliman Institute (LA), Saint Joseph Madison at Magnolia Heights, Kirk Academy at Oak Hill Academy, Porters Chapel Academy at Humphreys Academy, Marvell Academy (AR) at Lee Academy, Marshall Academy at Rossville Christian (TN), Lamar at Heritage Academy, Madison-Ridgeland Academy at Parklane Academy, Gulf Coast Elite Homeschool at Meridian HomeSchool, and Murphy (AL) at Moss Point.
Next week
Week 11 has 36 games on the schedule. The Week 10 ratings bring the new rankings and the Week 11 projections.
Twelve underdogs won this week. Who's your upset of the week?