Center Hill had a 9% chance at South Panola on Thursday. The Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI) had South Panola by 18. Center Hill won 30–29, 19 points better than the number. No MHSAA team won this week with a smaller chance.
Week 11 at a glance
An upset is a win by the team the projection did not favor. Pending games show no score until we can confirm them.
It also ended a run. South Panola had beaten Center Hill five straight times.
Both teams play on in Class 6A. Center Hill is Region 1's No. 2 seed and opens at home against Canton next week. South Panola is the region's No. 3 seed and plays at Neshoba Central. One loss didn't move the bracket much for South Panola: its 20% chance to win the 6A title is the second best in the class, behind Warren Central's 63%.
Two teams won this week with a 7% chance, both at MAIS schools. Bayou Academy won 10–7 at Pillow Academy. The PCPI had Pillow Academy by 19. DeSoto School (AR) won 32–14 at Calhoun Academy, 38 points better than the number.
Round 1 in Classes 1A to 4A had six upsets on our numbers, and one came from a No. 1 seed. Bogue Chitto hosted Sebastopol as Region 7's top seed in 1A, but the PCPI had Sebastopol by 8. Bogue Chitto won 13–12.
In 3A, Aberdeen won 36–28 at North Panola, a No. 4 seed winning at a region champion. The PCPI had North Panola by 1. It ended North Panola's run of three straight wins in the series, and Aberdeen plays at O’Bannon next.
Upsets
Seventeen underdogs won this week. Here are the other 12.
In 1A Round 1, Vardaman won 29–21 at Smithville with a 17% chance. The model had Smithville by 13, and Vardaman has now beaten Smithville three straight times.
Newton County Academy won 36–26 at Prairie View (LA) with a 23% chance. The model had Prairie View (LA) by 11.
Silliman Institute (LA) won 20–12 at Lamar, also with a 23% chance. The model had Lamar by 10.
Heritage Academy beat Washington School 24–21 and has won five straight in the series. The model had Washington School by 8.
South Jones beat Laurel 37–35 on Thursday. The model had Laurel by 7, and Laurel had won nine straight in the series.
Holmes County Central beat Florence 22–14, also on Thursday. The model had Florence by 6. Holmes County Central is in the 5A playoffs as Region 2's No. 4 seed and plays at New Hope.
Stone won 32–0 at East Central on Thursday, 35 points better than the number.
Meridian beat Brandon 40–34 on Thursday, and Brandon had won 10 straight in the series.
The rest of the upsets:
Presbyterian Christian beat Raleigh 15–13 in 3A Round 1 (Raleigh by 4).
Quitman won 28–22 in overtime at Port Gibson in 3A Round 1 (Port Gibson by 4).
Greenwood won 46–38 at Houston in 4A Round 1 (Houston by 1).
Oak Hill Academy won 38–29 at Saint Joseph Greenville (Saint Joseph Greenville by 1).
Two more games had no favorite at all. Starkville beat Oxford 55–28 on Thursday. Loyd Star won 27–24 at Puckett in 2A Round 1.
Beat the number
Twenty-six favorites beat the number by two scores or more. Six of them:
Perry Central shut out Enterprise (Clarke Co.) 37–0 in 2A Round 1. The model had Perry Central by 2, so that's 33 points better than the number.
Purvis won 46–10 at Vancleave on Thursday, 30 points better than the number.
Cathedral beat Bowling Green (LA) 42–8. The model had Cathedral by 5.
Sumrall won 44–7 at North Pike on Thursday, 28 points better than the number.
New Albany beat Rosa Fort 52–14 in 4A Round 1. The model had New Albany by 9.
French Camp won 55–14 at Falkner in 1A Round 1. The model had French Camp by 10.
Short of the number
Gulfport won 35–21 at Harrison Central, where the model had Gulfport by 44. Harrison Central kept it 30 points closer than the number. D'Iberville won 34–31 at Biloxi, and Biloxi kept it 20 points closer.
Streaks
Tupelo, Senatobia, Pass Christian, Winona and Tunica Academy are 11–0. Warren Central, Brookhaven, Thomas E. Edwards, Wesson and Leflore County are 10–0.
Heidelberg has won nine straight. Seminary, East Marion, Tri-County Academy and Central Holmes Christian have each won eight straight.
West Point has beaten Columbus in all 10 meetings since 2015. Oak Grove has beaten Pearl nine straight times, and Tupelo has won nine straight over DeSoto Central.
Five long runs in a series ended. Meridian ended Brandon's 10 straight, South Jones ended Laurel's nine, St. Martin ended Ocean Springs's eight, Okolona ended Biggersville's six, and Center Hill ended South Panola's five.
The bracket after Round 1
Classes 1A to 4A are into Round 2, with two Round 1 games still pending. The favorites mostly won, so the title chances barely moved.
Heidelberg is still the 2A favorite, with a 77% chance to win the title. Seminary leads 3A with a 48% chance, and Leflore County tops 1A with a 46% chance. Class 4A is the closest of the four: Poplarville has a 43% chance and Louisville 40%.
Some Round 2 games are close on our numbers, starting in 1A: Lumberton hosts Nanih Waiya with a 45% chance. In 2A, Charleston hosts Eupora with a 46% chance. O’Bannon hosts Aberdeen in 3A with a 55% chance.
Classes 5A to 7A open next week. Brookhaven has the best chance to win the 5A title, 68%. South Jones, which beat Laurel, hosts East Central in Round 1.
These are simulated chances, 10,000 brackets for each class, from the numbers set before the week. A high chance is not a title, and a low one is not an elimination.
Long Shot Watch
In each MHSAA class, we follow the team still alive with the smallest chance to win the title, round by round, until it loses or wins it all.
In 1A, it's Vardaman, which won 29–21 at Smithville and plays at Leflore County. In 2A, it's Hamilton, which beat J Z George 44–20 and plays at Kemper County. In 3A, it's Southeast Lauderdale, which beat Jefferson County 34–12, 19 points better than the number, and hosts Presbyterian Christian. In 4A, it's Greene County, which beat Richland 35–26 and plays at West Lauderdale. Each has a title chance under 1%, and each won Friday.
Still pending
These Week 11 finals aren't confirmed yet, so they aren't in this column: Tuscaloosa Christian (AL) at Russell Christian, East Rankin Academy at CHEF (LA), Northpoint Christian at Grace Christian Academy (TN), Northeast Lauderdale at Poplarville, Saint Aloysius at Riverfield (LA), Richton at Simmons, Humphreys Academy at Benton Academy, Hartfield Academy at Madison-Ridgeland Academy, and Columbus Christian at Tallulah Academy (LA).
Next week
Round 1 in Classes 5A to 7A is next Friday, and Round 2 in Classes 1A to 4A follows next week. The Week 11 ratings bring the new rankings and the next projections.
Seventeen underdogs won this week. Which Round 2 game are you watching?