Fourth and inches at the Lamar 4, in the rain. Brody Watrous wasn't ready for the snap. He scrambled away and flipped the ball to Jaxson Medcalf, alone at the back of the end zone.
That was Sept. 11, the night Caledonia's season turned. The model had Lamar by 29. Caledonia won 31–20.
Last season, Caledonia won one game. On Friday it goes to West Point, a program that played for a state title in every season from 2016 through 2025. West Point is 0–7. The model still has West Point by 8. So Friday asks two questions. Is this the Caledonia that won at Lamar, or the one Pontotoc beat 41–6 on Oct. 15? And what is an 0–7 West Point, really?
The climb
In 2024, Caledonia went 2–7. In 2025, it went 1–9. This season it already has three wins, as many as those two seasons combined.
The Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI) didn't see it coming. It rated Caledonia 142nd among MHSAA teams before the season. The model made Caledonia the underdog in four of its first five games.
Then Caledonia kept showing up in games it wasn't supposed to be in. It beat Amory by 20 when the model had it by 7. At Lamar, the model gave Caledonia a 4% chance, and Caledonia won by 11. East Webster was favored by 8 and won 27–24. After Lamar, Caledonia was 84th.
Pontotoc was the setback. It was 0–0 after a quarter in Pontotoc, and then Pontotoc scored 28 in the second. The Caledonia Sports Radio Network's call had neither team turning the ball over. Pontotoc won 41–6, and Caledonia slid back to 100th.
What the numbers say about West Point
Everyone knows West Point's history. It has won 13 MHSAA state titles, more than any other school. From 2016 through 2025, it played in ten straight state title games. It won six of them. In 2025, it went 13–1 and reached the final again. Last October, West Point won 51–7 at Caledonia.
This season has gone another way. If you're a West Point fan wondering why, here is what our numbers see.
The schedule is the first answer. No Class 5A team has played a harder one. Four of its losses came against teams rated 16th or better among MHSAA teams: Tupelo, Starkville, Louisville and Pontotoc. Tupelo is rated 1st. It won 34–6 at West Point. The model had Tupelo by 35.
The second answer is that the slide has stopped. West Point's PCPI fell from 36 to 13 over its first six weeks. It has held at about 13 for three straight weeks now. At Pontotoc on Oct. 9, it finished 4 points short of the number. Last Friday at Lafayette, the model had Lafayette by 4, and Lafayette won 31–30.
So this is still a good team. West Point is rated 8th of 24 in Class 5A. Caledonia is rated 15th.
There is an honest limit on that rating, though. Every team starts the year carrying most of last season's rating, and that start counts as one game all year. West Point's 2025 season, when it went 13–1, is still in its number. Take last season out, and the model would have West Point by about 3, not 8. The name is worth something. This season's results alone haven't matched it.
The booth
The Caledonia Sports Radio Network carries every Caledonia game live on Facebook and YouTube, home and away.
In September, Lamar's own radio crew gave Caledonia credit as the better team by the end of the night. At Pontotoc, Caledonia's best moments came on the ground. Tyler Long had a 46-yard run. Holden Counts carried 14 times for 60 yards. Finn Stubbendorff kicked two field goals.
What Friday decides
Region 1-5A has six teams, and the top four make the playoffs. Pontotoc and New Hope are close to sure of two of the spots. Lafayette has an 87% chance. West Point has a 71% chance. Caledonia has a 42% chance.
Friday moves those numbers more than any other 5A game this week.
If Caledonia wins, its playoff chance goes over 99%. West Point's falls to 2%.
If West Point wins, its playoff chance goes to 97%. Caledonia's falls to 21%, and its last two games would carry the season. It hosts Lafayette in Week 10, where the model gives Caledonia a 30% chance. Then it goes to New Hope in Week 11, where its chance is 9%.
West Point's road after Friday is New Hope at home in Week 10, with New Hope favored by 9, and then Columbus in Week 11, where the model has West Point by 23.
Where we think it goes
The numbers lean West Point, and so does the trend. West Point has been within 4 of the number in each of its last two games. Caledonia has finished below the number in three of its last four.
The model gives Caledonia a 27% chance on Friday. It gave Caledonia a 4% chance at Lamar.
Notes
- How the projection works: the Press Coverage Power Index rates each team in points against an average Mississippi team, from who it played, where, and by how much, and adds the home edge. The ratings here are set after Week 8 and don't move. Ranks are among all MHSAA teams.
- The series: since 2015, the teams have met once, West Point's 51–7 win at Caledonia in 2025.
- Sources: MHSAA's list of state champions; the Caledonia Sports Radio Network's calls of Caledonia at Lamar (Sept. 11) and Caledonia at Pontotoc (Oct. 15); Lamar's radio call of the Sept. 11 game.