Last week ended with a question: who's your upset of the week? Week 9 brought plenty of candidates. Twenty-three underdogs won. Last week there were 14.
Five teams from the Top 25 after Week 8 lost again, the same count as a week ago. One of them lost to the longest shot of the week.
Week 9 at a glance
An upset is a win by the team the projection did not favor. Pending games show no score until we can confirm them.
Start with Southaven. DeSoto Central was 19th in the Top 25. The Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI) had DeSoto Central by 24 at home. Southaven's chance was 4%.
Southaven won 28–26. That's 26 points better than the number, and it's the upset of the week. It's also our miss of the week. Before Friday, Southaven had a 10% chance at the playoffs in Region 1-7A. Now it has 39%.
Germantown was 18th. The PCPI had Germantown by 9 at Madison Central. Madison Central won 42–36.
Pontotoc was 21st, and it had beaten Caledonia 41–6 the week before. New Hope beat Pontotoc 35–28. New Hope has won five straight, and it has beaten Pontotoc three straight times.
Oak Grove was 5th. Brandon was 10th, and Brandon won 43–28. That one wasn't an upset: the PCPI had Brandon by 4.
Kemper County was 24th. Heidelberg won 46–7 at Kemper County, 21 points better than the number. Heidelberg has won seven straight.
Our Game of the Week went the way the number said, only more so. West Point beat Caledonia 41–16 for its first win of the season. The PCPI had West Point by 8, and West Point ran for 460 yards.
Upsets
Indianola Academy beat Winona Christian 27–24 with a 5% chance. The model had Winona Christian by 21.
Bay had an 8% chance against Forrest County AHS. Bay won 17–12 for its first win of the season. Its playoff chance in Region 8-4A went from 6% to 72%.
Amory beat Corinth 24–10, 28 points better than the number. The model had Corinth by 14.
Shannon beat Itawamba AHS 50–7. The model had Itawamba AHS by 2, so Shannon was 37 points better than the number.
Sumrall beat Natchez 54–48 with a 14% chance. Hancock beat Gautier 50–43 with a 16% chance.
Mount Olive beat Salem 28–10 for its first win of the season. The model had Salem by 9.
The rest of the upsets:
Walnut won 34–28 at Hatley (Hatley by 10).
Ethel beat Nanih Waiya 21–6 (Nanih Waiya by 10).
Vicksburg beat Cleveland Central 28–26 (Cleveland Central by 10).
Newton County Academy won 28–18 at Ben Ford Christian (LA) (Ben Ford Christian (LA) by 10).
McAdams beat Noxapater 26–25 (Noxapater by 9).
Lumberton beat Stringer 24–18 (Stringer by 7).
Purvis won 14–7 at Northeast Jones (Northeast Jones by 7).
Florence won 15–14 at Lanier (Lanier by 6).
Manchester Academy beat Kirk Academy 36–23 (Kirk Academy by 4).
Charleston won 34–30 at Northside (Northside by 3).
Richton beat Taylorsville 17–12 (Taylorsville by 3).
Richland won 42–28 at Forest (Forest by 3).
West Harrison won 28–17 at Ocean Springs (Ocean Springs by 1).
Two more games had no favorite at all. Canton beat Ridgeland 36–27. Saint Aloysius beat Adams Christian 42–35.
Beat the number
Seventeen favorites beat the number by two scores or more. Six of them:
Seminary won 36–7 at Raleigh, where the model had Seminary by 1. That's 28 points better than the number.
South Panola shut out Grenada 37–0. The model had South Panola by 8.
Collins beat Sacred Heart 53–12, 27 points better than the number.
Franklin beat Loyd Star 58–16, 27 points better than the number.
Louisville beat Mendenhall 50–7. The model had Louisville by 10. A week after the upset of Week 8, Mendenhall has lost two straight.
Mize shut out Bay Springs 31–0, 25 points better than the number.
Short of the number
Three favorites won by a lot less than the number said.
Hazlehurst won 36–34 at Jefferson County, where the model had Hazlehurst by 17.
Humphreys Academy beat North Sunflower Academy 56–24. That was still 17 points short of the number.
Washington School beat Rossville Christian (TN) 37–14, also 17 points short.
Streaks
Myrtle beat Bruce 38–27. Bruce came in 8–0. Its first loss of the season came at Myrtle, the game our first Small Town Friday previewed. The model had Myrtle by 5. Myrtle has won six straight.
This week, the three longest runs in a series ended. Saint Aloysius ended Adams Christian's eight straight. Canton ended Ridgeland's seven straight, and Ethel ended Nanih Waiya's.
Other runs got longer. Booneville has beaten Alcorn Central 12 straight times since 2015. Picayune has beaten Long Beach 11 straight times, and Brookhaven has beaten South Jones 11 straight times. Starkville has beaten Murrah 10 straight times since 2015.
Tupelo, Senatobia, Pass Christian, Winona, Wesson and Columbia Academy are 9–0 this season. D'Iberville, Lake Cormorant, Warren Central, Brookhaven, Poplarville, Booneville and Thomas E. Edwards are 8–0.
The playoff picture
In MHSAA, the top four of each region reach the playoffs. A few Friday results moved those chances a long way.
Before Week 9, Richton had a 40% chance at the playoffs in Region 8-1A. After beating Taylorsville, Richton is over 99% to make the playoffs.
Taylorsville went from 60% to under 1%.
In Region 8-4A, Moss Point went from 94% to 28% after its loss to Greene County.
West Harrison had a 33% chance in Region 4-7A. After its win at Ocean Springs, it has a 74% chance.
Ocean Springs went from 58% to 5%.
Purvis went from 62% to 96% in Region 4-5A after its win at Northeast Jones.
Sumrall had a 14% chance in Region 3-5A. After beating Natchez, it has a 65% chance.
These are simulated chances from the numbers set before the week. A chance near 100 is not a clinch, and a low one is not an elimination.
Still pending
These Week 9 finals aren't confirmed yet, so they aren't in this column: Quitman at Southeast Lauderdale, Riverside at Simmons, Holly Springs at Coahoma County, Greenwood at Gentry, North Pike at Laurel, Jefferson Davis County at McLaurin, Scott Central at Pelahatchie, Vancleave at Stone, Bogue Chitto at West Lincoln, Enterprise (Lincoln Co.) at Amite County, Leflore County at Coffeeville, Columbus Christian at Kemper Academy, Simpson Academy at Madison-Ridgeland Academy, Pillow Academy at Saint Joseph Madison, Delta Streets Academy at Prairie View (LA), Franklin Academy (LA) at Heritage Christian Academy, Delta Academy at Deer Creek, Hebron Christian at Calhoun Academy, Central Holmes Christian at Porters Chapel Academy, Wayne Academy at Winston Academy, Marvell Academy (AR) at Tunica Academy, Heritage Academy at Hartfield Academy, Copiah Academy at Cathedral, Jackson Prep at Lamar, Tensas Academy (LA) at Wilkinson Christian, Marshall Academy at West Memphis Christian (AR), Christ Covenant at Benton Academy, and Russell Christian at Tabernacle (AL).
Next week
Week 10 has 105 games on the schedule. The Week 9 ratings bring the new rankings and the Week 10 projections.
Twenty-three underdogs won this week. Who's your upset of the week?