Next up · the region opener
Week 7Region play opens at home against Columbus, 0–5 and rated last of 24 in 5A. Columbus has been outscored 221–40, though four of the five were against bigger schools. The model has Caledonia by 23 and gives it a 95% chance.
Last year Caledonia won this game 34–14, its only win of 2025. The number to watch is the margin: a 23-point favorite that wins by less has lost ground on the number, and the rating notices.
How the 23 is built
The win chance is how often real results land on the favored side of a margin like this: 95% of the time.
Columbus so far · 0–5
lost by 50by 25even | ||
|---|---|---|
| Houston4A | L 12–46 | |
| Southaven7A | L 0–41 | |
| Lake Cormorant6A | L 6–42 | |
| Meridian7A | L 8–50 | |
| Neshoba Central6A | L 14–42 |
Columbus's season so far. No common opponents yet; the first is Lafayette, who Columbus plays in Week 9 and Caledonia in Week 10.
Last time out
Week 5 · Fri, Sept. 25 · at CaledoniaCaledonia lost by 3; the model had East Webster by 8 (a 71% chance). That's +5 against the number.
The rating held at +9.
projected −8 · final −3 · +5 against the number
The season so far
Five games · ratings after Week 6The rating, week by week
Same opponents, one year apart
| Itawamba AHS16–27 → 10–42 | −21swing | |
| Amory36–40 → 27–7 | +24swing | |
| Lamar15–55 → 31–20 | +51swing | |
| New Albany21–66 → 28–35 | +38swing | |
| East Webster23–43 → 24–27 | +17swing |
Same five opponents, one year apart. Caledonia's margin went up against four of them, by 17 to 51 points; one went the other way.
Every game against its number
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Projected | Where it landed | Vs # |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | atItawamba AHS | L10–42 | Itawamba AHS by 20 | −12 | |
| 2 | vsAmory | W27–7 | Caledonia by 7 | +13 | |
| 3 | atLamarUpset | W31–20 | Lamar by 29 | +40 | |
| 4 | vsNew Albany | L28–35 | New Albany by 1 | −6 | |
| 5 | vsEast Webster | L24–27 | East Webster by 8 | +5 |
The road to November
Five region games · four playoff spotsLast year's result against this year's projection. Last year these were lost by 13 to 44, with one win; this year the model has Caledonia's four underdog games at 5 to 18 points.
| vs ColumbusWk 7 · Fri Oct. 9 · 2025: W 34–14 | Caledonia by 2395% · Columbus 0–5, −13 | |
| at PontotocWk 8 · 2025: L 13–26 | Pontotoc by 1890% · Pontotoc 4–1, +25 | |
| at West PointWk 9 · 2025: L 7–51 | West Point by 768% · West Point 0–5, +13 | |
| vs LafayetteWk 10 · 2025: L 17–42 | Lafayette by 563% · Lafayette 5–1, +15 | |
| at New HopeWk 11 · 2025: L 22–55 | New Hope by 1483% · New Hope 3–2, +20 |
The Playoff Push · Region 1-5A
The full region overview →Four of six reach the 5A playoffs, seeded by region record. Region games only; nobody has played one yet. Projected region wins: each team's region wins so far plus its win chances in the region games left, added up. It's what the ratings expect, not a prediction of the standings.