Booneville is the top seed in its region and plays at home this week. It's also the underdog.
Noxubee County visits in the second round of Class 3A. After Week 11, the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI) gives Noxubee County an 86% chance to win.
Booneville isn't alone. In 17 of this week's 56 MHSAA playoff games, the road team is the favorite, and each of those favorites is the lower seed.
MHSAA 5A through 7A: Round 1
Classes 5A, 6A and 7A open the playoffs Friday, Nov. 13, with the top two seeds from each region at home.
Starkville beat Oxford 55–28 last Thursday, and now it plays at Tupelo in the first round. Tupelo is 11–0. After Week 11, it has a 90% chance to win.
South Panola is a road favorite in Class 6A, with a 78% chance at Neshoba Central. In Class 7A, Germantown has a 66% chance at DeSoto Central.
MHSAA 1A through 4A: Round 2
The higher seed hosts this week's second round in Classes 1A through 4A. In 12 of these 32 games, the road team is favored.
South Delta plays at Bogue Chitto with a 90% chance. Presbyterian Christian has an 89% chance at Southeast Lauderdale.
Bogue Chitto got to the second round with a 13–12 win over Sebastopol. After Week 10, it had a 27% chance to win that game.
Vardaman won 29–21 at Smithville in the first round. It had a 17% chance after Week 10. Now it plays at Leflore County, which the model gives a 99% chance.
Unbeatens play on
Thomas E. Edwards is 10–0. At home against Choctaw County, it has a 55% chance, a coin flip.
In Class 4A, Senatobia is 11–0. It has a 68% chance against Greenwood. Pass Christian is unbeaten too, with a 67% chance against Columbia.
Tupelo, Warren Central, Brookhaven, Poplarville, Winona, Wesson and Leflore County are unbeaten as well. Each is a heavy favorite at home.
The closest games
Six games this week have no favorite above 56%. The game, then the favorite and its chance:
- Class 1A: Nanih Waiya at Lumberton, Nanih Waiya 53%.
- Class 2A: Eupora at Charleston, Eupora 55%.
- Class 3A: Choctaw County at Thomas E. Edwards, Thomas E. Edwards 55%.
- Class 5A: Lafayette at Lanier, Lafayette 56%.
- Class 5A: West Point at Leake, Leake 56%.
- Class 6A: Terry at Hancock, Terry 56%.
Who leads for the title
Brookhaven has the best title chance of any MHSAA team, at 74% in Class 5A.
Class 4A has a new leader after Week 11: Louisville, at 48%. Poplarville is next at 33%.
Class 1A is the closest. Leflore County leads at 39%. Simmons is next at 36%.
Every class, with every team's chance: presscoveragems.com/brackets
Notes
- How the numbers work: we studied the rating methods used for NFL, college and high school football, tested them on ten seasons of Mississippi games, and built one for Mississippi from what worked. Chances for this week's games and for the titles come from the PCPI after Week 11, set before kickoff, with 10,000 simulated brackets in each class. Playoff seeds and hosts are the MHSAA's own.