Last week ended with a question. Week 8 was back on a Friday, and would the underdogs be back, too?
They were. Fourteen underdogs won in Week 8, and five teams from last week's Top 25 lost. Three of those five came in unbeaten.
Week 8 at a glance
An upset is a win by the team the projection did not favor. Pending games show no score until we can confirm them.
Start with Richland. Mendenhall came in 6–0. It was 16th in the Top 25 after Week 7. A week earlier it won 42–7 at Morton, where the model had Mendenhall by 1. The Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI) had Mendenhall by 20 at Richland, a 93% chance.
Richland won 43–35. That's 28 points better than the number, and it's the upset of the week. It's also our miss of the week. Mendenhall had won the last three meetings in the series since 2015.
Natchez came in 6–0. It was 18th. The PCPI had Natchez by 12, an 80% chance. Laurel won 44–42 at Natchez. The number liked Natchez, but the series didn't: Laurel has now beaten Natchez 10 straight times since 2015.
Itawamba AHS came in 5–0. It was 20th. The PCPI had Itawamba AHS by 15 at Houston, an 86% chance. Houston won 36–31.
Brandon was 3rd in the Top 25. Petal was 9th, and Petal beat Brandon 35–34. In Week 7, Petal lost 29–28 to Oak Grove, so that's two straight one-point games, one of each.
Germantown was 15th. Oxford was 4th. The PCPI still had Germantown by 6. Oxford won 27–24 at Germantown.
The Game of the Week went the way the number said it would. Starkville won 31–17 at Clinton, where the PCPI had Starkville by 8.
Upsets
Then there's Magee. The model had Raleigh by 13, an 83% chance. Magee won 29–7, 35 points better than the number. Magee has won six straight.
Lewisburg beat Southaven 28–7. The model had Southaven by 11, so Lewisburg was 32 points better than the number. That one moved the playoff picture in Region 1-7A.
North Forrest won 46–14 at Sacred Heart, where the model had Sacred Heart by 1. North Forrest was 33 points better than the number.
Franklin won 35–34 at Hazlehurst. The model had Hazlehurst by 15, an 87% chance.
The rest of the upsets:
Purvis beat Stone 21–14 (Stone by 8).
Amanda Elzy won 14–10 at Yazoo County (Yazoo County by 4).
North Panola won 26–20 at Independence (Independence by 3).
Southeast Lauderdale beat Union 37–20 (Union by 2).
East Union beat Strayhorn 23–14 (Strayhorn by 1).
Two more games had no favorite at all. Noxapater beat Ethel 20–14. Saint Aloysius beat Saint Joseph Madison 36–30.
Beat the number
Here's the other side of the week. Twenty-two favorites beat the number by two scores or more. Six of them:
Bogue Chitto shut out Mount Olive 35–0. The model had Bogue Chitto by 10.
Columbia Academy shut out Oak Forest (LA) 28–0, where the model had Columbia Academy by 3. Oak Forest (LA) had won seven straight in the series since 2015.
West Jones won 38–12 at Terry, 24 points better than the number.
Hamilton won 41–6 at Walnut, 24 points better than the number.
Quitman won 42–13 at Northeast Lauderdale, where the model had Quitman by 6.
Park Place Christian beat Christian Collegiate Academy 50–0, 22 points better than the number.
Fell short of the number
Two favorites won by a lot less than the number said.
Presbyterian Christian won 28–24 at West Marion, 26 points short of the number.
Booneville won 21–7 at Mantachie, 21 points short. Booneville is 7–0.
Streaks
Lafayette beat West Point 31–30 and ended West Point's run of 11 straight wins in the series since 2015.
Port Gibson ended Jefferson County's run of eight straight in their series. Enterprise (Clarke Co.) ended Taylorsville's run of seven. Thomas E. Edwards ended Humphreys County's run of six.
Other runs got longer. Madison Central has now beaten Murrah 12 straight times since 2015. Scott Central has beaten Newton 11 straight times, and Oak Grove has beaten Meridian 11 straight times. Corinth made it 10 straight over Tishomingo County.
Tunica Academy is 9–0. Tupelo, D'Iberville, Senatobia, Pass Christian, Winona, Bruce, Wesson and Columbia Academy are 8–0. Lake Cormorant, Warren Central, Brookhaven, Poplarville, Booneville, Thomas E. Edwards and Leflore County are 7–0.
The playoff picture
In MHSAA, the top four of each region reach the playoffs. A few Friday results moved those chances a long way.
Before Week 8, East Union had a 46% chance at the playoffs in Region 2-2A. After beating Strayhorn, it has a 98% chance at the playoffs.
Strayhorn went from 54% to 2%.
Before Week 8, Lewisburg had a 6% chance at the playoffs in Region 1-7A. After beating Southaven, it has a 34% chance at the playoffs.
Southaven went from 62% to 22%.
Purvis had an 18% chance at the playoffs in Region 4-5A. After beating Stone, it has a 46% chance at the playoffs.
Stone went from 75% to 49%.
Velma Jackson had a 76% chance at the playoffs in Region 4-2A. After its win at Philadelphia, Velma Jackson is over 99% to make the playoffs.
North Forrest had an 83% chance at the playoffs in Region 8-2A. After its win at Sacred Heart, North Forrest is over 99% to make the playoffs.
These are simulated chances from the numbers set before the week. A chance near 100 is not a clinch, and a low one is not an elimination.
Still pending
These Week 8 finals aren't confirmed yet, so they aren't in this column: Lumberton at Resurrection, Potts Camp at H. W. Byers, Jim Hill at George County, Gentry at Louisville, North Pike at South Jones, J Z George at Charleston, Pine Belt Homeschool at Unity Christian, Victory Christian at Russell Christian, Faithful Explorers at Kemper Academy, Ben Ford Christian (LA) at Prentiss Christian, Discovery Christian at Sylva Bay Academy, Northpoint Christian at Evangelical Christian (TN), Deer Creek at Delta Streets Academy, Starkville Academy at Magnolia Heights, Bowling Green (LA) at Centreville Academy, Carroll Academy at East Rankin Academy, Jackson Academy at Madison-Ridgeland Academy, and Porters Chapel Academy at Christ Covenant.
Next week
Week 9 has 106 games on the schedule. The Week 8 ratings bring the new rankings and the Week 9 projections.
Five ranked teams lost this week. Who's your upset of the week?