Week 7 was supposed to be a Friday. The storm in the Gulf had other ideas.
Games moved up a night. Thursday became a second Friday. Mississippi played 41 games on Thursday night, and for every team that moved, that meant a short week and a game night that showed up a day before anybody had planned for it. Thirty-five of those games were region games.
So here's the question this column can't stop asking: did the storm move the results, too?
Week 7 at a glance
An upset is a win by the team the projection did not favor. Pending games show no score until we can confirm them.
The numbers say something moved. Twenty-four underdogs won in Week 7. Nine of those upsets came on Thursday night alone.
We can't prove the storm did it. But nine upsets on one crowded Thursday is hard to wave off.
Every upset, by the winner's chance
Each dot is one upset, placed at the winner's chance before the game. Further left, the longer the shot.
Start with the one everybody was watching, even though the model never called it an upset. Petal came into Thursday 6–0. It was second in Monday's Top 25, and Oak Grove was 13th.
The Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI) called it a coin flip: Oak Grove by 1, a 54% chance. That's exactly what Petal and Oak Grove played. Oak Grove won 29–28 in overtime, and Petal took its first loss this season.
Petal wasn't alone at the top. Three of Monday's top 10 lost.
Kosciusko came in 6–0 and ninth. Louisville, 24th, went to Kosciusko and won 59–38.
Noxubee County, 10th, lost at Winona. Winona is 7–0 now, and it's time the rest of the state noticed.
Upsets
Long Beach was the longest shot to win in Week 7. The model had Gautier by 28, a 98% chance. Long Beach won 16–14, 30 points better than the number. On a Thursday nobody planned for, that's the upset of the week.
Then there's Saltillo. It had lost its first six games, and the model gave Olive Branch a 95% chance. Saltillo won 26–21 for its first win this season. If you want a reason to keep showing up in October, there it is.
Saltillo had company. Saint Joseph Madison had lost its first seven games. The model had Cathedral by 13, and Saint Joseph Madison won 42–27 for its first win this season. North Sunflower Academy got its first win this season, too, 48–30 over Deer Creek.
Hancock's win is the one that should make the model blush. It had Pearl River Central by 17, an 89% chance. Hancock won 42–41 at Pearl River Central. Hancock has now beaten Pearl River Central six straight times since 2015. Some series don't care what the numbers say.
Center Hill had its own history to deal with. Grenada had won seven straight in the series since 2015, and the model had Grenada by 13. Center Hill won 28–14 at Grenada and ended the run.
The rest of the upsets:
Resurrection beat Taylorsville 27–24 (Taylorsville by 13).
Columbus Christian beat DeSoto School (AR) 40–36 (DeSoto School (AR) by 12).
West Tallahatchie won 28–12 at Gentry (Gentry by 11).
Simpson Academy beat Brookhaven Academy 10–7 (Brookhaven Academy by 11).
Newton won 22–20 at Pelahatchie (Pelahatchie by 10).
Franklin Academy (LA) beat Wilkinson Christian 44–30 (Wilkinson Christian by 12).
Port Gibson won 30–21 at Franklin (Franklin by 8).
Kemper Academy beat Prentiss Christian 58–48 (Prentiss Christian by 8).
West Marion won 47–29 at St. Patrick, 23 points better than the number.
Puckett, Biggersville, West Lauderdale, Tylertown, Canton Academy, Bayou Academy and Stringer won, too.
Beat the number
Here's the part of the week that cuts the other way. When a favorite won, it was far more likely to blow past the number than to fall short of it.
Twenty-six favorites beat the number by two scores or more. Not one winning favorite fell two scores short.
Every winner against the number
Each dot is one winner, placed at its margin against the projection, counted up to 35 points.
Mendenhall made the loudest statement. Morton was 23rd in Monday's Top 25. The model had Mendenhall by only 1. Mendenhall won 42–7 at Morton.
Leake Academy shut out Lamar 34–0, 33 points better than the number. Jackson Academy shut out Magnolia Heights 34–0, 33 points better than the number. Amory won 42–7 at Mooreville, where the model had Amory by 7.
Big upsets on one end, big wins on the other. That's what a short week looked like.
Streaks
Before Friday's kickoffs we flagged seven series streaks. Six of them held, and they got longer.
Eupora has now beaten J Z George 11 straight times since 2015. Clinton has beaten Murrah 10 straight times since 2015, one of them by forfeit. Tupelo, Choctaw County, Wesson and Magee each made it eight straight in their series. Center Hill took care of the seventh.
On Thursday, Gulfport made it 11 straight over St. Martin. Long Beach ended Gautier's run of six straight in their series. D'Iberville won 35–14 at Ocean Springs and ended Ocean Springs's run of five straight.
Christ Covenant and Tunica Academy are 8–0. Tupelo, D'Iberville, Senatobia, Pass Christian, Winona, Bruce, Eupora and Wesson are 7–0.
The playoff picture
In MHSAA, the top four of each region reach the playoffs. A short week moved some of those chances a long way.
Before Week 7, West Marion had a 35% chance at the playoffs in Region 8-3A. After winning at St. Patrick, it has a 92% chance at the playoffs.
St. Patrick went from 73% to 13%.
Before Week 7, Newton had a 33% chance at the playoffs in Region 5-2A. After winning at Pelahatchie, it has an 85% chance at the playoffs.
Pelahatchie went from 83% to 29%.
Center Hill had a 61% chance at the playoffs in Region 1-6A. After winning at Grenada, it has a 95% chance at the playoffs.
Amory had a 69% chance at the playoffs in Region 2-4A. After its win at Mooreville, Amory is over 99% to make the playoffs.
These are simulated chances from Monday's numbers. A chance near 100 is not a clinch, and a low one is not an elimination.
Still pending
These Week 7 finals aren't confirmed yet, so they aren't in this column: Heritage Christian Academy at Tensas Academy (LA), Park Place Christian at CHEF (LA), Sacred Heart at Columbia Academy, Faithful Explorers at Unity Christian, PURE Academy (TN) at Holly Springs, and Faith Christian HomeSchool at Clinton Christian.
Next week
Week 8 has 105 games on the schedule. Monday's numbers bring the new projections and the new rankings.
Week 8 is back on a Friday. We'll find out whether the underdogs are, too. Who's your upset of the week?