Late in the first half last October at Starkville, Clinton lined up a field goal. Starkville blocked it, recovered the loose ball and ran it back 82 yards for a touchdown.
It was the second Clinton field goal Starkville had blocked that night. By Clinton's own count, the Arrows finished with more first downs, 23 to 10. They had more yards, too, 327 to 257. Starkville won the 2025 meeting 28–7, scoring on offense, on defense and on special teams.
The visitors had the better numbers and still lost, and that's how this series has gone lately: the home team wins. Since 2019, the home team has won seven of the last eight meetings. The one exception was a 2022 playoff game, when Starkville won at Clinton. Friday's game is at Clinton. So the question is whether the home pattern holds against the better-rated team.
Our numbers say it won't. After Week 7, the Press Coverage Power Index (PCPI) has Starkville by 8, a 72% chance. Eight points is a touchdown and a two-point try. It's a real lean, and it's also a margin one blocked kick can erase.
The coach on both sidelines
The last two meetings had the same winning coach on opposite sidelines.
In 2024, John Carr's Clinton team beat Starkville 31–22 at Clinton. Starkville then hired him away from that job, in February 2025 (WCBI). Last October he coached Starkville to the 28–7 win over the school he had just left. This year he's gone to an NFL staff, with the Cleveland Browns (SuperTalk Mississippi).
Both schools replaced him with a Morgan. Clinton promoted its defensive coordinator, Hamer Morgan, in February 2025. Starkville hired Brett Morgan from West Point in February 2026. Friday is Morgan against Morgan.
Hamer Morgan is in his second season as Clinton's head coach. He ran Forest's program from 2012 to 2014 and has been on Clinton's staff since 2015, a stretch that includes the school's 2016 Class 6A title (Clinton Public Schools). Brett Morgan spent 17 years on West Point's staff and was head coach for the last two, and West Point won the 2024 Class 5A title under him (The Dispatch). Friday is his first trip to Clinton as Starkville's coach.
Two programs, one region
Starkville sits beside Mississippi State in Oktibbeha County. Clinton is in Hinds County. Both play in Class 7A now, in Region 2, where four of the six teams make the playoffs.
Starkville comes in with a long résumé. Its 2015 Class 6A champions had two future NFL players, A.J. Brown and Willie Gay (Mississippi Scoreboard), and that team beat Clinton 45–27 at Clinton in the second round of the 2015 playoffs. Its 2022 title was its seventh (Mississippi Scoreboard). Its athletic director, Jay Hopson, was Southern Miss's head coach from 2016 to 2020 (WCBI). And in 2025 the district approved new turf at Yellow Jacket Stadium and a new video board (The Dispatch).
State titles, players who went on to the NFL, a former college head coach running the athletic department, new turf at home. In the regular season, Starkville hasn't won at Clinton since 2018.
Clinton has a résumé of its own. Cam Akers led the Arrows to that 2016 Class 6A title. He accounted for all seven touchdowns in Clinton's 49–35 win over Pearl in the final (The Meridian Star). The Los Angeles Rams drafted him in 2020.
Where the two teams stand
Starkville is 4–2 and 0–1 in Region 2-7A. It won its first four, then lost two straight at home, to Brandon and to Germantown. Brandon won 38–31 in a game our numbers had Starkville winning by 9. Germantown won 38–28 in the region opener, close to a coin flip: Starkville had a 51% chance against Germantown.
Clinton is 2–4 and 1–0 in Region 2-7A. Its four losses came to Warren Central, Northwest Rankin, Brandon and Petal, and none of them was a region game. Then it opened region play with a 48–14 win over Murrah. After the losses, the job was to win the region opener, and Clinton did.
So the 2–4 team leads the 4–2 team in the region standings. Brandon beat both of them. It won 30–18 at Clinton.
The ratings still separate them. After Week 7, Starkville is rated 5th of the 25 teams in 7A, with a PCPI of 32. Clinton is rated 15th, at 22. The honest limit on Clinton's good start is that number: one region win hasn't moved it into the top half of its class.
The booth at Pearl
The one Clinton game this season we've heard on the radio is its 41–13 win at Pearl on Sept. 18, called by PMB Sports for the City of Pearl.
Pearl's crew spent the night watching Clinton run the ball. By halftime, Clinton had run 33 plays to Pearl's 19. It had 131 yards on the ground. The booth's point was that a half that clean, with that many more snaps, wears a defense out fast. Clinton scored five rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown that night.
That game is the best case for Clinton on Friday. Our numbers had Clinton by 5 at Pearl. It won by 28.
Friday
Seven of the last eight meetings have gone to the home team. Last October, the home sideline blocked a kick and ran it back 82 yards. Friday, the home sideline is Clinton's.
Notes
How the projection works: the Press Coverage Power Index rates each team in points against an average Mississippi team, from who it played, where, and by how much, and adds the home edge. The ratings here are set after Week 7 and don't move.
The series: our archive starts in 2015. Since then, the teams have met 13 times, and Starkville has won 9. Both playoff meetings were second-round games at Clinton, and Starkville won both. Before Starkville's 2025 win, Clinton's pregame notes counted the full series at 16 meetings, with Starkville winning 11 of them. The same notes say Clinton's last win at Starkville came in 2000.
Records: Clinton's own schedule page shows one more win than we do, because it counts an Aug. 21 game that we interpret as a jamboree.
Sources: Clinton athletics' game story and pregame notes on the 2025 meeting (October 2025); WCBI on John Carr's hire (February 2025) and Jay Hopson's (February 2025); SuperTalk Mississippi on Brett Morgan's hire and John Carr's move to the Cleveland Browns (February 2026); The Dispatch on Brett Morgan (February 2026) and Starkville's turf and video board (June 2025); Clinton Public Schools on Hamer Morgan (February 2025); Mississippi Scoreboard on Starkville's 2022 title (December 2022) and on A.J. Brown and Willie Gay (February 2023); The Meridian Star on the 2016 Class 6A final (December 2016); NFL.com on the Los Angeles Rams drafting Cam Akers (2020); PMB Sports' call of Clinton at Pearl (Sept. 18, 2026), posted by the City of Pearl.